Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Raises

Marilyn vos Savant posed this question: Say you're making $10,000 a year. Your boss offers you a choice between a $1,000 raise once a year and a $300 raise every six months. Which do you choose? Marilyn says you should choose the $300 raise. I disagree but I'll lay out Marilyn's math and explanation for you.

Say Marilyn vos Savant and you each makes $10000 a year. Starting Jan. 1, 2001, Marilyn takes the $300 raise every six months and you take the $1000 raise once a year. In the first six months you both make $5000. In the next six months, Marilyn makes $5300 and you make $5000 for a total on the year of $10300 and $10000, respectively.

On Jan. 1, 2002, you both get raises - $300 for her, $1000 for you. Her pay for the next six months is $5600, yours is $5500. On July 1, she gets a raise and you don't; for the next six months, her pay is $5900 and yours is $5500. After two years she's made $21800 and You've made $21000. In the first six months of 1993, Savant makes $6200 and you make $6000, for a grand total of $34000 for her and only $33000 for you.

                       Marilyn vos Savant            You
Pay for Running Pay for Running
Period period total period total
-------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
2001, 1st half $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000
2nd half $5300 $10300 $5000 $10000
2002, 1st half $5600 $15900 $5500 $15500
2nd half $5900 $21800 $5500 $21000
2003, 1st half $6200 $28000 $6000 $27000
2nd half $6500 $34500 $6000 $33000
2004, 1st half $6800 $41300 $6500 $39500
2nd half $7100 $48400 $6500 $46000
You'll notice that as time goes on, the earnings gap only increases. Can anyone deduce what's wrong with all this? 
Answer:
Given the question as stated, most people would interpret a $300 raise to mean a $300 increase in annual salary--that is, after six months your salary would rise from $10,000 to $10,300 per year. In your first year you'd make $10,150--$5,000 the first six months, $5,150 the second--not the $10,300 Marilyn claims. Under Marilyn's math she's giving herself two $600/year a raises--as reflected in her starting salary for 2002 which is $11,200 (5,600 x 2)--thus her modest $300 raise somehow bolstered her salary by $1200 in a single year. Applying the raise to the yearly salary, there's no way a semiannual $300 raise would beat out an annual $1,000 raise.

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